Each day TFO Canada publishes a sample of trade news on the Canadian import market along with any new, updated or changed regulations and legislations regarding international trade; countries in which TFO Canada offers services and on the export sectors which it promotes.
Canada's Trade Surplus to Trend Lower in Coming Months
(CEP News via I.E. Canada Daily News) Economists say Canada's trade surplus with the rest of the world is likely to shrink further from July's $4.85 billion figure reported Thursday by Statistics Canada.
The July reading was well below the $5.6 billion consensus estimate of analysts and the previous month's revised surplus of $5.6 billion, which was originally reported as $5.8 billion.
Exports were 2.2% higher than in the previous month at $44.3 billion on stronger volumes and increased prices. Meanwhile, imports rose 4.5% to $39.4 billion. Both figures represent records for a single month.
Canada's trade surplus has remained above $4 billion for six consecutive months after falling to $2.1 billion in December 2007 and $2.5 billion in January 2008. The monthly surplus hit a record high of $8.6 billion in January 2001.
Energy exports slipped 1.5% in July to $12.8 billion, but were 76% higher on an annual basis. Exports of industrial goods and materials rose 5% month-over-month and 10.6% on an annual basis to $10.1 billion. Exports of automotive products were up 2.4% from June but down 17% on an annual basis at $5.4 billion.
BMO deputy chief economist Doug Porter said the August swoon in commodity prices will see the merchandise trade surplus narrow more sharply in the months ahead, "probably to below the $3 billion mark in short order."
The surplus on energy imports and exports dipped to $7.2 billion from the record high of $7.5 billion in the two prior months, Porter said, while the trade deficit on auto products hit a record high of $1.6 billion. "As recently as the start of 2007, Canada was still running a trade surplus on autos," he said. …